At the end of every quarter, we give you an overview of the market data. The second quarter ended June 30th, so it’s about time to present the market analyses of the ForEx, the ICE (Arabica) and the LIFFE (Robusta) markets.
ForEx (foreign exchange) USD vs EUR
Since the First Quarter analysis (link) showed us a decline in the USD/EUR rate from mid-February onwards – coming from 1,3654 on February 1st – the April month opened up with a value of 1,2849. One Euro would be worth around 1,30 USD for a long while, with one exceptional peak up to 1,3503 on April 15th. This would turn out to be a mere bump in the road, not even surviving the next day (1,3170 on April 16th). Swaying between 1,32 and 1,30 until May 9th, the Second Quarter is one of stability. The dive under the 1,30 mark would result in a downward peak on May 17th (1,2834). As from May 28th, the USD/EUR market would go on a steady trip to the top, culminating in a maximum of 1,3394 at the end of June. Nonetheless, the Second Quarter would strand in calmer waters, ultimately stabilizing around 1,31 USD/EUR. At the very last day, 1 EUR would be worth 1,3070 USD.
Q2 Maximum: 1,3503 USD/EUR (April 15th)
Q2 Minimum: 1,2834 USD/EUR (May 17th)
Q2 Average: 1,3071 USD/EUR
Q1 Average: 1,3196 USD/EUR
The ICE Market came out of the First Quarter with good intentions, but they would fade as quickly as a New Year’s resolution. Grasping on at first to a worth of 140 USC, a pound of Arabica coffee would soon devaluate to the 135 USC/lb mark. Despite a first, weekend-long peak around 142 USC/lb (April 19th-22nd), it was back to the square one at the end of April. The month of May spurred the ICE market to a quarterly peak of 147,9 USC/lb (May 9th), which is still a fraction of the prices paid for a pound of Arabica last year. However, from then on, the bear took over and clawed the ICE market down to 127,25 (May 24th). For four weeks, the market price waltzed around the 127 USC/lb mark, only to decline further on June 12th (122,75) and June 20th (117,65). The market price would end Q2 at 121,2, or 17,2 USC/lb lower than were it had started the Quarter.
Q2 Maximum: 147,9 USC/lb (May 9th)
Q2 Minimum: 117,65 USC/lb (June 20th)
Q2 Average: 132,66 USC/lb
Q1 Average: 143,69 USC/lb
Where the story of the LIFFE’s First Quarter was one of a race to the top with a small set-back at the end, the second chapter of the LIFFE book makes up for a different read. The 2051 USD/MT starting point would turn out to be on the highest points in the curve, and was immediately corrected downwards. First to 1987 USD/MT (April 10th), after which the market experienced a small rebound: off it went to the Quarterly maximum of 2060 USD/MT on April 22nd, but the joy at the producers’ side was short-lived. The LIFFE market price further declined to 1944 USD/MT (April 25th). As a last effort the market went bullish to 2054 in mid-May, only to thrust downwards again. This time for good, as the negative peak would slowly but surely be reached at 1705 USD/MT (June 13th), dropping 350 points in a course of 20 market days. The LIFFE price stabilized again around 1735 in the last days of Q2.
Q2 Maximum: 2060 USD/MT (April 22nd)
Q2 Minimum: 1705 USD/MT (June 13th)
Q2 Average: 1973,5 USD/MT
Q1 Average: 2048 USD/MT
– 30 July 2013